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ISSUE 200 - December 2011
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Trajectories - Fortuitous and Otherwise

By David Rose, Contributing Editor
San Diego, California

We built 9,860 North American F-86's. The first one came off the line in 1949, the last in 1956.
In the early 1950's it was the bird I wanted to fly; that is until the F-104 came out in '55.

Still, I couldn't hope to get a 104 assignment right out of the Air Force Aviation Cadet program, so I ended up going to the '86 in September of '59. Great stuff, 'till they grounded them all. The Guard still flew them for a while longer but I was out of luck.

And what did the Air Force do with all us '86 jocks? Why they sent us to SAC of course. They did give us our choice of tankers, '47's or '52's, but it was the rock or the hard place for us. I mean the '86 was such a joy to fly, single seat fighter and all; then to go to bombers; it was all too much. I did manage to find a bomb squadron with no airplanes, and no expectation of getting any for maybe a couple of years. They were slated to receive the B-52-G models, and they were somewhat delayed in development.

So it was that I found myself flying the 'T' Bird out of Base Ops at Warner Robbins AFB outside Macon Georgia. I had little to do there, other than help the other 4 'T' Bird pilots put time on the 5 airplanes assigned to Base Flight. We would fly around, burning up time and fuel to whatever destination on whatever whim we dreamed up. As the only bachelor I was a more than welcome addition to the group, and as I've related here before, I saw a lot of a girl in L.A. and enjoyed many a ham sandwich at the Red Cedar Lounge in Wichita.

So when Armed Forces Day rolled around I was asked to do a fly by in the Bird, maybe a roll or something, nothing serious; "You just can't point it at the crowd" I was told.
So years later, arriving at Reno to race for the first time in the early '90's, those words of caution came back to me as I watched the unlimited guys pulling 'g's around pylons 7 and 8, dragging their nose around from South to East past the crowded grandstands, I had to ask about the assumption that you "Never direct aerodynamic energy toward the spectators".

I was told that the FAA had studied the matter of "Debris Fields" and "Trajectory Analysis" of falling parts and wayward aircraft and had established guidelines to be followed when conducting aerial demonstrations and air races. In short, they had determined that a 500 foot buffer between the race course and the spectators was a sufficient margin to allow such events to take place safely. It was under these assumptions that air racing had been conducted for some 37 years. "Nuff said."

It is interesting to note though, that an amazingly thorough study of " The Ballistic Trajectory Characteristics and Relative Scatter Patterns of In-flight Airframe Separations Debris Specific to The Air show Environment." was published by Proairshow, LLC, in August of 1990 which had concluded "It is not possible to rely on the FAA Handbook Formula to provide a safe separation distance and prevent possible injury to air show spectators." The study is an interesting read as well as a prophetic warning.

( http://www.proairshow.com/aircraft_debris.htm )

The National Transportation Safety Board (NTSB) is the overseer to the FAA and is the ultimately responsible agency in these matters. In my readings of the investigations and insightful conclusions of the NTSB regarding aviation safety, I must say that they are very good at what they do. Their guidelines and regulations regarding the safety of spectators attending airshows and air races are conscientiously authored, but how can you predict the trajectory of an out of control aerodynamic platform traveling at 500 mph? Simply put; you can't.

Tragedy was narrowly avoided during the Reno Unlimited race in September of 1999 when "Miss Ashley", flown by the infamous Gary Levits, traveling near 500 mph, disintegrated on the front straightaway, almost directly in front of the spectator grandstands. The 'debris field' extended hundreds of feet down into to the valley East of Stead Field, damaging several homes. Had the aircraft come apart seconds earlier there might have been untold casualties among the spectators in the stands.

Again in September, 2007, an L-39 Jet aircraft racing near 500 mph, piloted by Brad Morehouse, went out of control shortly after passing pylon 8 and while pointed at the grandstands. Carnage was narrowly avoided as the aircraft turned and crashed alongside the runway in front of, but several hundred feet North of, the grandstands. Once more lives were saved by the fortuitous flight path of an out of control aircraft. So, for what it's worth, my considered opinion of air racing, as far as spectator safety is concerned, is that it is not safe. More importantly, it can not be made safe.

Saf - er? Sure. Place the spectators to the top of a nearby hill, above the race line, removed by something more than the "safe 500 feet". The spectators could be placed inside the race course, thus avoiding "directing aerodynamic forces toward the spectators", but leaving them in a more exposed position. Either would make spectating safer; both would detract from the up front, close in enjoyment of high speed airplane racing. For me, as a big air race fan? I would like to see the spectators on a hill top above the race line, looking down on a 9 or 10 mile oval race course. I think that perspective would be terrific.

But that's just me. I'm not battling with the problems and challenges associated with staging such a huge event as The National Championship Air Races at Reno. I don't have to tackle the transportation, logistic and environmental problems associated with two hundred thousand spectators. And - I don't have to foot the bill.

For those who do, I wish the energy, dedication and insightfulness they will need to weather the storm of scrutiny and accusation permeating their year. They're dealing in the courts now, and in the halls of governments; and within their own hearts. They are striving to come to grips with their recent tragedy while seeking an acceptably safe structure for what is for now, the world's single venue for high speed air racing.

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